Official Family Wagering Commission

Three Boys. Zero Chill.

Lock in a guess for each baby, then scroll down for a deeply unreasonable amount of analysis.

Step 1 · Place your bets

Your name Used for all three guesses.

{{ b.label }} · Due {{ b.due }}

{{ b.cd.d }}days

Birth date Birth time Weight

Length (in)

✓ Locked in as {{ b.myName }} · no take-backs

Step 2 · Department of Excessive Analysis

Unnecessary Findings

The Composite Baby

All {{ all.n }} guesses averaged into one boy. Statistically, he does not exist.

Weight{{ all.comp.w }}

Length{{ all.comp.l }}

Arrives{{ all.comp.t }}

Three boys, one timeline

Due date · each dot is one guess, stacked by day · lines mark weeks

Family consensus, by baby

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Weight range · lightest to heaviest guess

{{ r.lo }}avg {{ r.mid }}{{ r.hi }}

Length range

{{ r.lo }}avg {{ r.mid }}{{ r.hi }}

The Punctuality Heatmap

Days early or late vs. each due date. Blue = impatient. Orange = realistic.

The Confusion Index

How much the family disagrees about each boy. Longer bar = more chaos.

Superlatives

Awarded based on everyone's guesses across all three boys.

{{ w.title }} {{ w.name }} {{ w.note }}

No guesses yet. Be the first to be wrong.

{{ cur.label }} · Due {{ cur.due }}

{{ cur.cd.d }}days

Family consensus · {{ cur.count }}

Date{{ cur.c.date }}

Time{{ cur.c.time }}

Weight{{ cur.c.w }}

Length{{ cur.c.l }}

The Receipts · {{ cur.count }}

No guesses yet. Be the first to be wrong.

{{ g.name }}

The Calendar of Destiny

Due date Hot pick

SMTWTFS

The Timeline · who picked which day

DUE DATE

Weight, ranked by audacity

The Chonk Matrix

↑ Longer

Noodlelong & light Linebackerlong & heavy Pocket-sizedshort & light Dumplingshort & heavy

↓ Shorter← Lighter · Heavier →

When will he make his entrance?

3am ambushMorningAfternoonEvening

The Birth Clock · 24 hours of possibility

Family avg {{ cur.a.clockAvg }}

Midnight at top · darker half is nighttime · tap a dot for who

Which day will he ruin?

The Bell Curve of Chonk · guesses per 4 oz

The Conformity Meter · distance from family consensus

Most basicMost unhinged

The Bookie's Board

Odds set entirely by family opinion. Not legally binding. Probably.

{{ o.k }} {{ o.odds }} {{ o.note }}

Superlatives · {{ cur.short }} edition

{{ w.title }} {{ w.name }} {{ w.note }}

waiting for guesses

due

🏆 {{ resAll.title }}

{{ w.k }} {{ w.v }} {{ w.note }}

🏆 Results · {{ cur.parents }}

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The Extra Mile

A completely unreasonable number of charts. Every guess for all three boys, compared against science, the moon, the stars, and each other. Tap anything.

Classified · Family eyes only

Executive Summary

Report #BB-2027-003
{{ ex.exec.n }} data points · {{ ex.exec.ppl }} analysts

Confidence level: unreasonably high. Methodology: see Appendix, bottom of page.

Reference avg · {{ cv.sciV }} Family avg · {{ cv.famV }}

The Realism Leaderboard

How close each person’s guesses sit to real-world averages for weight, length and timing.

Most realisticScore / 100

Bottom of the list: lives in a fantasy world where babies are whatever size they want.

The Ponderal Index™

A real newborn chonk ratio: weight ÷ length³. Doctors use it. We are abusing it. Shaded band is the normal range.

← Noodle-classRegulationDumpling-class →

Does late mean large?

Every guess plotted: days vs. due date against weight, with a line of best fit nobody asked for.

{{ ex.sc.xLo }}Due date{{ ex.sc.xHi }}

r ={{ ex.sc.r }}

NYSE: CHNK

The Family Chonk Index: running average weight as each guess came in. Not financial advice.

Round the clock · every guess by hour

All three boys stacked. Tap a bar for names.

12am6am12pm6pm

Family Faction Analysis

Guesses grouped by family title. Generational trends revealed.

{{ fc.name }}{{ fc.n }}

Moon phase forecast

Grandma swears a full moon brings on labor. Science disagrees. Grandma doesn’t care.

Zodiac Forecast

Star signs based on everyone’s guessed birth dates. Deeply scientific.

{{ z.parents }}Leading: {{ z.lead }}

Monday’s Child

The old nursery rhyme, applied to each boy’s most-guessed weekday.

{{ rh.parents }}{{ rh.day }} · {{ rh.n }}

“{{ rh.line }}”

Box plots, for the nerds

Lightest to heaviest guess, middle 50% boxed, median marked. Tap a row.

Weight

Length

Is he here yet?

Family-implied odds each boy has arrived by a given date, based on the share of guesses on or before it.

{{ cf.parents }}

The Personality Quadrant

Each person’s average guess across all three boys. Center lines are the family average.

Early & chonky Late & chonky Early & petite Late & petite

← Expects earlyExpects late →

Brain Twins

The five pairs whose guesses are most alike across all three boys.

{{ tw.pair }} {{ tw.sim }}

Unclaimed real estate

Dates within a week of each due date that nobody picked yet, plus the lone wolves who picked a date all to themselves.

Every date near the due date is taken. Sold out.

Lone wolves: {{ wv.lone }}

Minute-hand bias

Which minutes people picked, in 5-minute slices. Humans love a round number.

Round Number Syndrome

A clinical look at who commits to precision and who just picks 7 lb 0 oz and moves on.

Weights & measures

The composite baby, converted into everyday objects for clarity.

The Baby Tower

Every guessed length stacked end to end, against things of known height.

Weekend odds vs. reality

Random chance says 2 in 7 births land on a weekend (28.6%, the yellow line). How does the family compare?

Family votes

For people who guessed all three boys: which one did they make the biggest, and which one the latest?

Biggest boy

Most overdue

Countdown in useless units

Time until {{ ex.useless.who }}’s due date, measured in things that matter.

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000+ fake births

We simulated each birth thousands of times using real-world newborn distributions and scored every guess. These are everyone’s pre-game odds.

Bar = projected wins out of 3 babies. Tap a name for odds on each boy. {{ ex.mc.sims }} simulations run.

Weight win map

If the baby weighs anything in a slice, that person’s guess is closest. Tap a slice for the exact range.

Date win map

Same idea, for birth date. Find your territory. Defend it.

95% confidence intervals

How sure the family is, statistically. Yellow line = real-world reference. Tap a row.

Weight

Days vs. due date

Hypothesis testing

H₀: the family’s guesses match real-world averages. One-sample t-tests, because we have lost perspective.

Correlation matrix

How every variable relates to every other variable, across every guess. Nobody asked for this.

DaysWeightLengthHour

Guess DNA

Each person’s genetic guessing profile vs. the family average. Blue = lower/earlier, orange = higher/later.

DateHourWeightLength

Information theory corner

Entropy, inequality and other words that make this sound like a grant proposal.

Benford’s Law fraud audit

In real data, about 30% of numbers start with 1. Fabricated data usually doesn’t. We checked every number you typed. Yellow = Benford’s prediction.

Prime number investigation

Are these numbers prime? Does it matter? No. Here it is anyway.

Projected adult height

Using the rule of thumb that adult height is roughly 3.5× birth length. Draft scouts, take note.

{{ ah.parents }}{{ ah.avg }}

Tallest projection: {{ ah.tall }} (thanks, {{ ah.tallBy }}). Shortest: {{ ah.short }} ({{ ah.shortBy }}).

Peer review

This report was submitted to a panel of anonymous experts.

{{ rv.who }}{{ rv.verdict }}

“{{ rv.text }}”

Appendix · Methodology & disclaimers

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Three Boys. Zero Chill.

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Unnecessary Findings

The Receipts · {{ cur.count }}

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